Revisiting some Important Topics for 2026

Hello everyone,

As we approach the second half of 2026, I think it’s important to revisit the topics we highlighted at the beginning of the year in our “Themes for 2026” article and provide an update. Throughout the article, I reference several pieces I have written before that provide additional context on specific topics, so take your time to read them for a better grasp of the broader thesis.

Before going theme by theme, it is worth laying out the thread that connects them. My core view remains that the resolution of the Ukraine war is the master variable for 2026: it sets the path of the euro, and euro strength is the channel through which weakness begins to spill into U.S. mega-caps. What has kept US equities at all-time highs is not fundamentals but a paper-thin liquidity backdrop in which options reflexivity and geopolitically-driven hedging demand (Iran being the latest example) have done most of the work together with extreme passive flows and carry trades.

The one structurally durable winner through all of it is AI infrastructure, where the capex moat is real and does not easily unwind. Putting it together, I still see broad-equity risk/reward as unattractive, which is why I would stay close to the index with a lower-beta stance while expressing conviction through idiosyncratic, and where possible long/short, exposure.